Will MAGA represent more than 20% of the electorate after January 2029?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionMiddle EastCrime & Justice2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:03 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 75.3%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 13, 26, 10:36 PM UTCJan 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Manifold Marketswill trump be assasinated in US?
Manifold MarketsWill there be 30+ Palestine protestors in the US Capitol building at any time before Jan 20th 2029?
Manifold Markets[poll/stock - never resolves] How do Americans view Donald Trump’s political rhetoric (independent of politics)?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketNetanyahu arrested by which date?
PolymarketRules
Like other political movements before it, such as Occupy Wall Street and The Tea Party, will MAGA stop having political influence after the new president takes office?
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by January 2029, MAGA supporters represent more than 20% of the U.S. electorate based on publicly available polling data.
- Resolution will be determined by major polling organizations (Gallup, Pew Research Center, Rasmussen, or similar) that measure self-identification with the MAGA movement.
- If multiple polls exist at the resolution date, the average of the most recent polls will be used.
- The market resolves NO if MAGA support falls to 20% or below.
