will trump be assasinated in US?
CommoditiesOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionMiddle EastSportsCrime & JusticeGolf3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.4%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 7, 26, 1:13 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 1:12 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
will trump be assasinated in 2026
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is assassinated (killed by an intentional act of violence) at any point during the calendar year 2026.
- Resolution will be based on confirmation from major news outlets and official sources.
- The market resolves NO if Trump survives the entire year 2026 without being assassinated.
- Trump survived assassination attempts in Butler, Pennsylvania in July 2024 and West Palm Beach, Florida two months later, with the second attacker sentenced to life in prison.
- A deadly confrontation at Mar-a-Lago in February 2026 represents the latest in a string of high-profile security incidents, with former Secret Service officials noting Trump is "the most threatened president in the history of the U.S." Recent attacks have been characterized as "super low-tech," with lone actors posing particular challenges to presidential protection.
Open markets
CommoditiesKALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Sep 8, 2026?
- Above $90.99+14.0pt99%
- Above $90.49+9.0pt99%
- Above $83.4999%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $478.9K
- 24h Vol
- $306.2K
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
- ↓ $90100%
+22 more outcomes
KALSHIFlorida gas prices tomorrow
- Above 3.910099%
- Above 3.895099%
- Above 3.890099%
+34 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $147.5K
- 24h Vol
- $147.5K
KALSHINatural gas price on September 08, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $2.85097%
- Above $2.85594%
- Above $2.86089%
+67 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $132.1K
- 24h Vol
- $131.5K
KALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.150099%
- Above 4.145099%
- Above 4.135099%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $130.6K
- 24h Vol
- $128.4K
KALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Sep 9, 2026?
- Above $85.4999%
- Above $85.99+7.0pt99%
- Above $84.9999%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $131.8K
- 24h Vol
- $90.6K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for will trump be assasinated in US??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does will trump be assasinated in US? resolve?
- will trump be assasinated in US? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is will trump be assasinated in US? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria