[poll/stock - never resolves] How do Americans view Donald Trump’s political rhetoric (independent of politics)?
InflationOne-OffEquitiesPoliticsUS PoliticsElectionGeopoliticsMiddle EastCrime & Justice
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNegative 45%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleDec 29, 25, 7:51 PM UTCDec 31, 99, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market was intended to be a poll but it’s clear Manifold would skew negative, so the question pertains to how Americans view Donald Trump (the politician) into 3 broad categories:
- Positive: this includes most of MAGA (voted for Trump without any regrets/caveats on his political tactics such as lying, tweeting, inflammatory rhetoric, “fascism”), but also some left wing such as supporters of Mamdani/AOC that voted for Trump in 2024 since they believe he is an effective politician (independent of specific policy positions e.g. ending wars, cost of living), I’m guessing this includes comedians that posture as apolitical or even liberal but enjoy Trump as a politician (Andrew Schultz, Joe Rogan, Shane Gillis?, Theo Von?) assuming that their public personas are not solely praising him for the content/entertainment he provides for their career would otherwise be anti-Trump.
- Neutral/Agnostic: this is for people like Ben Shapiro or outlets like the Free Press, that don’t “irrationally hate Trump” but acknowledge he is a flawed politician, they’re willing to praise him at times for his unconventional tactics (even Sam Harris did this for the Gaza ceasefire, but he’s clearly negative) and may say he’s a great politician for his ability to get deals done and “be a fighter for the common man”.
- This generally includes most conservatives who were likely “Never Trump” in 2015-16 but likely voted for him 3x as a shrewd political calculation and also liberals who “don’t have TDS” (like John Fetterman).
- Negative: this is basically the majority of people who are anti-Trump and struggle to name a single positive thing about him, including the majority of the “mainstream” (think 2010s and earlier when “civility” and “decorum” were valued), most people who never voted for Trump would fall into this category, though if you believe in Horseshoe theory some populist left (e.g. Jimmy Dore, RFK, Tulsi though they might be viewed as grifters who were never truly left wing) may have voted against Trump due to having left wing politics rather than questioning his fitness for being a politician at all.
- Think all the anti-Trump former republicans (Kinzinger, Cheney, Romney, Bulwark) and of course the majority of Democrats, basically anyone with “TDS” as claimed by the right.
