Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September?
MonthlyGeopoliticsMiddle EastHealth & Medicine22dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 61.3%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 5, 26, 4:38 AM UTCSep 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, between its creation on September 5, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, Iranian state military forces (including the regular military/Artesh or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps/IRGC) execute an attack that successfully strikes a U.S. military base or a military facility housing U.S. armed forces.
- For the purposes of this market, a "strike" requires a projectile, missile, or drone to physically impact, detonate within the perimeter of, or cause documented damage or casualties at the targeted U.S. military facility.
- Attacks that are fully intercepted, shot down, or land harmlessly outside the facility's perimeter without causing documented damage or casualties will resolve the market to NO.
- Any attacks that occurred prior to the market's creation (such as the attacks on September 1–3, 2026) are excluded and will not count toward a YES resolution.
- Sources of Truth: Resolution will be determined using official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), or consensus reports from major independent international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, Agence France-Presse).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 61% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? resolve?
- Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? is scheduled to resolve on September 30, 2026.
- How is Will Iran strike US military base at least once in September? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria