Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 86.9%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 29, 26, 3:33 PM UTCOct 1, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
**Resolves YES** if, at any point from 00:00 UTC on 1 September 2026 through 23:59 UTC on 30 September 2026, the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran launch a direct military strike targeting a United States military base or installation anywhere in the world.
- Otherwise **NO**. **Direct strike:** the launch of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, rockets, or one-way attack drones/UAVs that target, impact, or are intercepted in the immediate vicinity of a U.S. military facility.
- Interception does not matter — a launch that CENTCOM confirms was aimed at a U.S. facility counts. **Iran:** the state's official military forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the regular Iranian armed forces (Artesh).
- Strikes carried out solely by regional proxy militias (Houthis, Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, Hezbollah, etc.) do **not** count, unless U.S. Central Command or the U.S. Department of Defense publicly attributes the strike to Iranian forces directly. **Does NOT count:** attacks on commercial shipping, on non-U.S. bases, on embassies or diplomatic property, on allied forces at facilities that are not U.S. installations, cyber operations, sabotage, or any incident Iran's government denies and which CENTCOM/DoD does not attribute to Iranian forces. **Resolution source (in order):** (1) an official U.S. Central Command or Department of Defense statement; failing that, (2) concurring reports from at least two of Reuters, the Associated Press, and Agence France-Presse.
- If no qualifying strike is reported by these sources by 7 October 2026, this resolves NO. **Context at creation (29 Aug 2026):** Iran struck U.S. facilities in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain repeatedly in June and July 2026 (Operation Sa'eqeh, through phase 27 on 31 July).
- August 2026 passed with no qualifying strike; the Islamabad MoU ceasefire was extended ahead of its 17 August deadline and Qatari mediation was ongoing as of 27 August.
Open markets
Middle East
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026? resolve?
- Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Will Iran directly strike a US military base in September 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: **Resolves YES** if, at any point from 00:00 UTC on 1 September 2026 through 23:59 UTC on 30 September 2026, the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran launch a direct military strike targeting a United States military base or installation anywhere in the world.