Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaEurope1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.7%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 29, 25, 9:48 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
US-China Track 1 AI dialogue commits to shared AI safety benchmark by '27?
Manifold MarketsWill Paris be the hub of AI in Europe by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Germany formally exceed NATO's 2% GDP defense spending and deploy troops outside Europe by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
KalshiUS x China Military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRules
For the purposes of this question, a serious war is defined as causing at least 1,000 combat-related deaths, as listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts.
- For the conflict to qualify, it needs to involve at least two of the major military powers listed in the title, in opposing camps.
- [link preview]"Europe" is either the European Union, or one of the major European militaries (UK, France, Germany).
- An internal European conflict such as UK-France would also count.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $717.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt49.6%
- October 31-2.0pt29.1%
- September 30-4.0pt12%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-21.5pt47%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $65M
- 24h Vol
- $116.9K
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028? resolve?
- Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: For the purposes of this question, a serious war is defined as causing at least 1,000 combat-related deaths, as listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts.