Will a serious war break out between two of the major military powers (NATO, US, China, Russia, Europe) before 2028?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaEurope1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.7%
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26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMar 29, 25, 9:48 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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FutuurRules
For the purposes of this question, a serious war is defined as causing at least 1,000 combat-related deaths, as listed here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts.
- For the conflict to qualify, it needs to involve at least two of the major military powers listed in the title, in opposing camps.
- [link preview]"Europe" is either the European Union, or one of the major European militaries (UK, France, Germany).
- An internal European conflict such as UK-France would also count.