Will there be a US-China war if Trump gets elected in 2024?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsChinaElection1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Jul 15, 24, 8:26 PM UTCJan 20, 28, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
- This market will resolve as N/A if Donald J. Trump does not win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, or if he does not assume the office of President on January 20, 2025.
- - An armed conflict is defined as sustained military engagements involving direct combat between the armed forces of the United States and the People's Republic of China.
- - This market will resolve as YES if an armed conflict occurs between the United States and the People's Republic of China during Trump's presidency.
- - If there is no armed conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China by the end of Trump's presidency, this market will resolve as NO.
- - The market will resolve on January 21, 2029.
- This allows for the possibility of Trump serving a full four-year term from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029.
