Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
GeopoliticsOne-OffSociety & CultureHealth & MedicineEurope8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 50.9%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleJul 6, 25, 12:09 AM UTCJun 15, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsRules
Disasters which count
- Nuclear strike or accident
- Infrastructure collapse
- War also counts
- Deaths from old age, traffic, etc don't count unless related (many people die crashing cars due to seeing a Kaiju for example).
- Note: things that have always been that way probably won't count as a disaster.
