Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 55 minutes ago
LaggingJun 3, 23, 3:18 PM UTCFeb 1, 35, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Some examples of disasters:
- -Nuclear strike
- -Infrastructure collapse, such as from a solar flare
- If a disaster affects Boston, Massachusetts, we'll refer to the total deaths attributed during the calendar year.
- We then calculate that as a percent of the prior population.
- If it's 10% or more, we resolve Yes.
