Will 10% of London die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
One-OffSociety & CultureHealth & Medicine8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.6%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 2, 23, 2:18 AM UTCFeb 1, 35, 4:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Some examples of disasters:
- -Nuclear strike
- -Infrastructure collapse, such as from a solar flare
- If a disaster affects the city of London (England), we'll refer to the total deaths attributed during the calendar year.
- We then calculate that as a percent of the prior population.
- If it's 10% or more, we resolve Yes.
