Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 93.9%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 26, 2:50 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Joe Biden die before the 2028 presidential election (Nov. 7 2028)?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Joe Biden dies at any point during 2026 (January 1 - December 31, 2026).
- Resolution will be determined by major news sources reporting his death.
- This market resolves NO if Biden survives through December 31, 2026.
- As of January 4, 2026, Joe Biden is 83 years old, having been born on November 20, 1942.
- Biden left the Oval Office on January 20, 2025.
