Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2027-2029 60.6%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
412
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.7 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 15, 23, 12:32 PM UTCNov 11, 30, 10:00 PM UTC
Trends
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Joe Biden die before Donald Trump?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden die this year?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump or Joe Biden die before Jan 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill it be reported that Joe Biden used Ambien before the 2024 presidential debate?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
Joe Biden was born in 1942, making him the oldest president to ever take office.
- If he is elected to a second term, he would start it at 82.
- There have been a number of rumors and specualtions about his health, with many conservative pundits claiming he is suffering from dementia.
- On the other hand, routine medical check-ups describe him as "vigorous":
- https://apnews.com/article/biden-politics-united-states-government-health-bdce6c15df6186e06710f2d903a3513e
- [link preview]
Open markets
US PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $689.3K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.6pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.2M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+4.0pt99%
- $25M+3.5pt96%
- $50M+4.5pt91%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $256.3K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $249.6K
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Joe Biden die??
- Manifold Markets prices 2027-2029 at 61% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Joe Biden die? resolve?
- When will Joe Biden die? is scheduled to resolve on November 11, 2030.
- How is When will Joe Biden die? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Joe Biden was born in 1942, making him the oldest president to ever take office.