Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 80.1%
Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 18, 25, 9:34 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Will he die, specifically because of prostate cancer, by the end of 2027? If he dies of a combination of factors including prostate cancer, resolves YES.
- Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If prostate cancer is a major contributing factor to death, the market resolves YES.
- This includes cases where prostate cancer or its treatment causes increased susceptibility to another condition that is the immediate cause of death.
