Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 55%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMay 18, 25, 9:34 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Donald Trump or Joe Biden die before Jan 2028?
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PolymarketRules
Will he die, specifically because of prostate cancer, by the end of 2027? If he dies of a combination of factors including prostate cancer, resolves YES.
- Update 2025-05-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If prostate cancer is a major contributing factor to death, the market resolves YES.
- This includes cases where prostate cancer or its treatment causes increased susceptibility to another condition that is the immediate cause of death.
Open markets
US PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
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- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $689.3K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.6pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.2M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+4.0pt99%
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- $50M+4.5pt91%
+4 more outcomes
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- December 31-0.4pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $256.3K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $249.6K
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Joe Biden die of prostate cancer by EOY 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 55% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Joe Biden die of prostate cancer by EOY 2027? resolve?
- Will Joe Biden die of prostate cancer by EOY 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Joe Biden die of prostate cancer by EOY 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Will he die, specifically because of prostate cancer, by the end of 2027? If he dies of a combination of factors including prostate cancer, resolves YES.