What are the current odds for Will 10% of New York city die in any year from disaster, before 2035??

Manifold Markets prices No at 96.9% as of October 26, 2026.

Will 10% of New York city die in any year from disaster, before 2035?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 96.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 10 hours ago

Stale

Jun 3, 23, 3:14 PM UTCFeb 1, 35, 4:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Some examples of disasters:

-Nuclear strike
-Infrastructure collapse, such as from a solar flare
If a disaster affects the city of New York city in New York, we'll refer to the total deaths attributed during the calendar year.
We then calculate that as a percent of the prior population.
If it's 10% or more, we resolve Yes.