Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
GeopoliticsOne-OffHealth & MedicineEurope8yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.5%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJul 5, 25, 6:08 PM UTCJun 30, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Disasters which count
- Nuclear strike or accident
- Infrastructure collapse
- War also counts
- Deaths from old age, traffic, etc don't count unless related.
- A death by disaster is an unintended (by the victim, at a prior state in time) death.
