Will 10% of San Francisco die in any year from disaster, before 2029?
Health & MedicineOne-OffSociety & Culture2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98.5%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 31, 23, 2:09 AM UTCFeb 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Some examples of disasters:
- -Nuclear strike
- -Infrastructure collapse, such as from a solar flare
- If a disaster affects the city of San Francisco, we'll refer to the total deaths attributed during the calendar year.
- We then calculate that as a percent of the prior population.
- If it's 10% or more, we resolve Yes.
