Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
JD Vance 19%-0.1ptLeader of 45 outcomes
Forecasters
1,013
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.6 pts
Market data
Updated 24 minutes ago
Jan 10, 24, 6:40 AMNov 6, 28, 7:59 AM
Trends
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
Rules
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election by the U.S. Electoral College and certified by Congress, as verified by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) or another authorized government body.
- If no candidate is declared the winner, it will resolve to "No."
- Request your candidate in comments.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who will be elected president in the 2028 US election? · J.D. Vance 19%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 39%
- Also available on Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 25%
- Also available on Smarkets — 2028 Presidential Election Winner · JD Vance 18%
- Also available on Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 21%
- Also available on Futuur — US Presidential Election Winner in 2028 · Gavin Newsom 28%
- Also available on PredictIt — Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? · JD Vance 21%
- Also available on Kalshi — 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? · J.D. Vance 19%
Open markets
Politics
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2028 US Presidential Election winner??
- Manifold Markets prices JD Vance at 19% as of August 28, 2026.
- When does 2028 US Presidential Election winner? resolve?
- 2028 US Presidential Election winner? is scheduled to resolve on November 6, 2028.
- How is 2028 US Presidential Election winner? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election by the U.S. Electoral College and certified by Congress, as verified by the U.S. Federal Election Commission (FEC) or another authorized government body.
