Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNikki Haley 0.3%Leader of 45 outcomes
Forecasters
1,006
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Jan 10, 24, 6:40 AMNov 6, 28, 7:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Gavin Newsom13%
Compare venues· JD Vance
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall87% match · auto | Medium | 20% | — | $1.2M | $37.5M | 19 minutes ago | Open → |
 Kalshi80% match · linked | Medium | 18% | — | $256.5K | $36.3M | 14 minutes ago | Open → |
 Smarkets85% match · linked | Low | 13% | — | $23 | $0 | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
 Myriad90% match · auto | Low | 36% | — | $0 | $0 | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless81% match · verified | Low | 50% | — | $0 | $0 | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
 Futuur65% match · linked | Low | 15% | — | $0 | $0 | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 19% | — | — | — | 12 minutes ago |
Also available on Myriad
US Presidential Election Winner 2028
45.8%2y
-0.5%36.4%
+4.2%26.8%
-0.7%5.1%
+28 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
MYRIADAlso available on Polymarket
Presidential Election Winner 2028
2y
20%
+0.1%14%
+0.3%12%
+125 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$655.1M
24h Vol$1.2M
POLYMARKETAlso available on Smarkets
2028 Presidential Election Winner
6.7%
0.2%
0.1%
+30 more outcomes
32 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$312.4K
24h Vol$23
SMARKETSAlso available on Limitless
Presidential Election Winner 2028
2y
50%
50%
50%
+4 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$16.7K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Kalshi
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
0.1%3y
+0.1%1%
18%
2%
+27 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$50.5M
24h Vol$256.5K
KALSHIAlso available on Futuur
US Presidential Election Winner in 2028
3mo
15%
15%
14%
+2 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$299.9
24h Vol$0
FUTUURRules
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2028 U.S.
- Presidential Election by the U.S.
- Electoral College and certified by Congress, as verified by the U.S.
- Federal Election Commission (FEC) or another authorized government body.
- If no candidate is declared the winner, it will resolve to "No."
- Request your candidate in comments.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$840Jul 84d of dataJul 11
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Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" for the candidate officially declared the winner of the 2028 U.S.
- Presidential Election by the U.S.
- Electoral College and certified by Congress, as verified by the U.S.
- Federal Election Commission (FEC) or another authorized government body.
- If no candidate is declared the winner, it will resolve to "No."
- Request your candidate in comments.