Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 23.9%Leader of 30 outcomes
Forecasters
44
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Nov 8, 24, 11:41 AM UTCNov 26, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill unemployment rate in the US reach 10% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump win in 2028 Presidential Elections
Manifold MarketsWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
PolymarketWill Trump's first pick win the 2028 US presidential election?
PolymarketWho will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?
PolymarketRules
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
- If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
- Anyone that adds a new candidate and bets for them will get a Ṁ10 subsidy for their contribution of new information and potentially new candidates.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who will be elected president in the 2028 US election? · J.D. Vance 20%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 30%
- Also available on Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 24%
- Also available on Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 21%
- Also available on Smarkets — 2028 Presidential Election Winner · JD Vance 19%
- Also available on Futuur — US Presidential Election Winner in 2028 · Gavin Newsom 28%
- Also available on PredictIt — Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? · JD Vance 21%
- Also available on Kalshi — 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? · J.D. Vance 23%
Open markets
PoliticsFrequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will win the 2028 US presidential elections??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 24% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Who will win the 2028 US presidential elections? resolve?
- Who will win the 2028 US presidential elections? is scheduled to resolve on November 26, 2028.
- How is Who will win the 2028 US presidential elections? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- Where else is Who will win the 2028 US presidential elections? listed?
