Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 23%+0.1ptLeader of 30 outcomes
Other 23%+0.1ptForecasters
46
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.1 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 8, 24, 11:41 AM UTCNov 26, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill unemployment rate in the US reach 10% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democratic Party nominate a female presidential candidate in the 2028 US Presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
PolymarketWinner of the next US Presidential Election
FutuurRules
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
- If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
- Anyone that adds a new candidate and bets for them will get a Ṁ10 subsidy for their contribution of new information and potentially new candidates.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will the 2028 presidential election winner be a millennial? · No 68%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 24%
- Also available on Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 18%
- Also available on Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 18%
- Also available on Futuur — US Presidential Election Winner in 2028 ·
