Manifold MarketsNo KYCCurrent community forecastDonald Trump 1.7%Leader of 30 outcomes
Forecasters
42
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 days ago
StaleNov 8, 24, 11:41 AMNov 26, 28, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Donald Trump2%
Also available on PredictIt
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
22%
17%
16%
+10 more outcomes
Retail prediction exchange
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
PREDICTITAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2028 United States presidential election?
2y
3.6%
1.3%
1.8%
+58 more outcomes
Community forecast479 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$260.1K
24h Vol$251.2
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be elected president in the 2028 US election?
2y
15.3%
2.7%
0.1%
+16 more outcomes
Community forecast108 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$31.8K
24h Vol$103
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2028 United States Presidential Election?
2y
3.1%
-0.4%19.2%
0.8%
+18 more outcomes
Community forecast577 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$553.5K
24h Vol$1.4K
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be elected president in 2028?
2y
+0.2%3.6%
0.6%
-0.1%1.6%
+97 more outcomes
Community forecast1,973 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$2K
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will be elected President in 2028? (limited choices)
2y
19.2%
14.8%
13%
+1 more outcomes
Community forecast32 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$9.8K
24h Vol$91.9
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?
2y
13.8%
3.8%
1.6%
+44 more outcomes
Community forecast146 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$73.2K
24h Vol$102
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
- If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
- Anyone that adds a new candidate and bets for them will get a Ṁ10 subsidy for their contribution of new information and potentially new candidates.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate.
- If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
- Anyone that adds a new candidate and bets for them will get a Ṁ10 subsidy for their contribution of new information and potentially new candidates.