Current community forecast
Yes 61%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleFeb 21, 24, 1:25 AM UTCNov 7, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will unemployment rate in the US reach 10% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?
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LimitlessRules
Resolves YES if the inflation rate is announced to be 6% or higher on any given month between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections in the United States, inclusive of the two months when the elections happen.
- Resolves NO otherwise, after the CPI data was made public for the month of the 2028 presidential election.
- Will not wait for corrections.
- The yearly inflation rate refers to the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate as announced on the US Bureau of Labor Statistics website.
- https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
- May resolve N/A if an event makes it clear there will be no presidential election in 2024 or 2028.
Open markets
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $417.1K
- 24h Vol
- $41.4K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $644.9K
- 24h Vol
- $39.4K
POLYMARKETAugust Inflation China - Annual
- 0.7% - 0.8%+56.5pt100%
- ≤0.2%-0.5pt0%
- 0.3% - 0.4%-7.3pt0%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $92.7K
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- CPI core in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- CPI in September
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- CPI-U index in August
- August Inflation US - Annual
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 61% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections? resolve?
- Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections? is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.
- How is Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if the inflation rate is announced to be 6% or higher on any given month between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections in the United States, inclusive of the two months when the elections happen.