Current community forecast
No 90%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleFeb 18, 24, 9:03 PM UTCNov 7, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will resolve YES if the unemployment rate reaches 10% or higher at any point between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections in the United States according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Will resolve NO otherwise, after data for the whole period has been made public.
- May resolve N/A if an event makes it clear there will be no presidential election in 2024 or 2028.
- On the other hand, if for example the 2028 election gets delayed and is still referred to as the 2028 election but occurs in 2029, it will not resolve as N/A and be extended until the actual election occurs.
- Source used for resolution: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
- Screenshot showing data up to November 2023 for reference:
