Current community forecast
No 88.5%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleFeb 18, 24, 9:03 PM UTCNov 7, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the inflation rate in the US reach 6% between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 US presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democratic Party nominate a female presidential candidate in the 2028 US Presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWill a third-party or independent candidate win any state in the 2024 or 2028 US presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWhich party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
PolymarketWinner of the next US Presidential Election
FutuurRules
Will resolve YES if the unemployment rate reaches 10% or higher at any point between the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections in the United States according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Will resolve NO otherwise, after data for the whole period has been made public.
- May resolve N/A if an event makes it clear there will be no presidential election in 2024 or 2028.
- On the other hand, if for example the 2028 election gets delayed and is still referred to as the 2028 election but occurs in 2029, it will not resolve as N/A and be extended until the actual election occurs.
- Source used for resolution: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
- Screenshot showing data up to November 2023 for reference:
