Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocratic 97%+2.0ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 25, 1:47 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
0.3%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
PolymarketNZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
Polymarket2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
KalshiWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketWhich party will win the House in 2026?
LimitlessRules
Determined by FEC report.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $837.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+1.0pt20%
- Tucker Carlson+0.1pt3%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom13.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213M
- 24h Vol
- $477.5K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt73%
- New People (NL)-2.5pt23%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.5pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-1.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+1.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Putin out as President of Russia by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which Party will win the House popular vote in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Democratic at 97% as of September 7, 2026.
- When does Which Party will win the House popular vote in 2026? resolve?
- Which Party will win the House popular vote in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is Which Party will win the House popular vote in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Determined by FEC report.