Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastAbbott 3+ pts 59%-2.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-11.0 pts
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleOct 10, 26, 2:56 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Texas Governor Election Winner
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Manifold MarketsTexas Governor margin of victory
KalshiTexas Governor margin of victory
KalshiRules
The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses.
- Resolves the same as Kalshi.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory · Abbott 3-6% 21%