Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 66%
Forecasters
28
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Oct 11, 26, 1:42 AM UTCNov 3, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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2026 Texas gubernatorial election - Wikipedia
- Greg Abbott is the Republican nominee.
- Resolves Yes if the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 6 percentage points or more.Outcome verified from Texas Secretary of State or Associated Press.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
- Resolves same as Kalshi
