PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Republican 3-6% 14%Leader of 10 outcomes
Market quality
59 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$41.3
Liquidity
$60.5K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Aug 5, 26, 9:05 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
The 2026 Texas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
- This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
- The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates.
- Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
- For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively.
- Independent candidates will not represent options for either party.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory?
- Polymarket prices Republican 3-6% at 14% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory resolve?
- Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Texas Governor Election Margin of Victory settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: The 2026 Texas gubernatorial election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.