Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastRepublican Party 83.1%-0.7ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
45
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-2.1 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleApr 10, 24, 5:56 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Robinhood (Rothera)Rules
This market will resolve to the party which won the state's gubernatorial election, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
- In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may resolve early.
- If a candidate switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Texas Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Republican Party at 83% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Texas Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026? resolve?
- Texas Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is Texas Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the party which won the state's gubernatorial election, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.