Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocratic Party 96%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
29
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleApr 10, 24, 5:56 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsCalifornia Governor Election Winner
PolymarketCalifornia Governor Election: Fresno County Winner
PolymarketCalifornia Governor Election Margin of Victory
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the party which won the state's gubernatorial election, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
- In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may resolve early.
- If a candidate switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — California governor election winner · Xavier Becerra 88%
- Also available on Kalshi — California Governor winner? · Xavier Becerra 96%
- Also available on PredictIt — Who will win the 2026 election for governor of California? · Xavier Becerra 95%
- Also available on Polymarket — California Governor Election Winner · Xavier Becerra 95%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2026 California Governor Race · Democrat 93%
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.2pt36.5%
- Édouard Philippe-1.0pt29.2%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon12.5%
+38 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $132.8M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6M
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance+0.4pt51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt18%
- Tucker Carlson4%
+39 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro-4.7pt49.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+5.0pt48.5%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.8pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.4pt14%
+48 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14.6%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $215.7M
- 24h Vol
- $685.7K
POLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Sweden
- Magdalena Andersson-8.0pt71.6%
- Ulf Kristersson+9.0pt27.4%
- Ebba Busch+0.3pt1%
+7 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for California Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Democratic Party at 96% as of September 12, 2026.
- When does California Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026? resolve?
- California Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is California Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the party which won the state's gubernatorial election, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
- Where else is California Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Futuur, Kalshi, PredictIt, Polymarket, Robinhood (Rothera).