Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jun 11, 2026, 5:45 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current community forecastDemocratic Party 97.8%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
27
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 45 days ago
StaleApr 10, 24, 5:56 PMNov 4, 26, 7:59 AM
Trends
0.2%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Democratic Party98%
Compare venues· Democratic Party
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiBest overall80% match · verified | High | 95% | — | $15.5 | $604.1K | 16 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 98% | — | — | — | 45 days ago |
Also available on Kalshi
California Governor winner?
0.3 pts1y
-0.3pt94.1%
5.9%
76 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.2M
24h Vol$15.5
KALSHIRules
This market will resolve to the party which won the state's gubernatorial election, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
- In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may resolve early.
- If a candidate switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.2k93.7%KALSHIRepublican party — No8d ago
KALSHIRepublican party — No8d ago$1.3k93.7%KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes9d ago
KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes9d ago$1.5k95.0%KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes9d ago
KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes9d ago$2.4k94.4%KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes11d ago
KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes11d ago$1.4k94.8%KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes11d ago
KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes11d agoRelated Markets
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This market will resolve to the party which won the state's gubernatorial election, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
- In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may resolve early.
- If a candidate switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.