California Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms6d
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocratic Party 97%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
33
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleApr 10, 24, 5:56 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsCalifornia Governor Election Winner
PolymarketCalifornia Governor Election: Turnout
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to the party which won the state's gubernatorial election, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
- In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may resolve early.
- If a candidate switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Futuur — California governor election winner · Xavier Becerra 93%
- Also available on Kalshi — California Governor winner? · Xavier Becerra 96%
- Also available on PredictIt — Who will win the 2026 election for governor of California? · Xavier Becerra 97%
- Also available on Polymarket — California Governor Election Winner · Xavier Becerra 97%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2026 California Governor Race · Democrat 98%
