Current implied probability
Xavier Becerra 94.1%-0.4pt
Market quality
78 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$109.9
Liquidity
$604.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
95.1% / 95.4%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jan 10, 25, 3:00 PMNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Xavier Becerra95%
Compare venues· Xavier Becerra
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 95% | — | $109.9 | $604.1K | 16 minutes ago | |
 Manifold Markets80% match · verified | — | 98% | — | — | — | 45 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
California Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026?
3mo
97.8%
1.9%
0.2%
Community forecast27 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of California pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
- See full rules for details.
- If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of California pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.2k93.7%KALSHIRepublican party — No8d ago
KALSHIRepublican party — No8d ago$1.3k93.7%KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes9d ago
KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes9d ago$1.5k95.0%KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes9d ago
KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes9d ago$2.4k94.4%KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes11d ago
KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes11d ago$1.4k94.8%KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes11d ago
KALSHIDemocratic party — Yes11d agoVolume trend
$110Jul 226d of dataJul 27
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If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of California pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner.
- See full rules for details.
- If a representative of the Republican party is inaugurated as the governor of California pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.