KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Democrats, 12+ pts · —
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Stored price
Democrats, 21+ pts Stored bid–ask47%–53%Collected: Last trade: 50% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Market line of 9 lines
Democrats, 21+ pts Stored bid–ask47%–53%Collected: Last trade: 50% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Market quality
41 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$26
Open interest
$1.6K
Low open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Democrats, 12+ ptsSpread
—
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Sep 14, 26, 7:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 2:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Democrats, 12+ pts
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 21 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:California Secretary of State
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Democratic Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Democratic Party if the Democratic Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Democratic Party loses. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. If the Democratic Party runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural the Democratic Party will be summed. If the Democratic Party wins the election, the margin will be positive. If the Democratic Party loses the election, the margin will be negative. If the Democratic Party ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. For uncontested races where the Democratic Party is the only candidate, the margin shall be 100 percentage points or the total number of votes cast (for raw votes).
Rules for each outcome
- Democrats, 12+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 12 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 15+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 15 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 18+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 18 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 21+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 21 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 24+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 24 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 27+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 27 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 30+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 30 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 33+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 33 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 36+ pts
- If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in California by 36 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — California Governor Election Margin of Victory · Becerra 25-30% 33%
