Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocratic Party 84.5%+0.5ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
20
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+1.6 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleApr 10, 24, 5:57 PM UTCNov 4, 26, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.5%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsArizona Governor Election: Turnout
PolymarketArizona Governor Election Winner
PolymarketArizona Governor election winner
FutuurRules
This market will resolve to the party which won the state's gubernatorial election, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.
- In the case the race is called by the major news organizations, the market may resolve early.
- If a candidate switches party affiliations, the switch will not affect the outcome if it is after the beginning of Election Day, local time.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Arizona Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Democratic Party at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Arizona Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026? resolve?
- Arizona Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is Arizona Governor's Race: Which party will win in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to the party which won the state's gubernatorial election, as determined by the local, state, and ultimately federal governments.