PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
2.6M-2.75M 27.3%-4.0ptLeader of 10 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$69
Liquidity
$22.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
7d Change
+28.5 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Aug 18, 26, 2:08 PM UTCNov 3, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Arizona Governor Election Winner
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
- All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included.
- Invalidated or blank votes are not included.
- In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
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- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
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- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Arizona Governor Election: Turnout?
- Polymarket prices 2.6M-2.75M at 27% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Arizona Governor Election: Turnout resolve?
- Arizona Governor Election: Turnout is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2026.
- How is Arizona Governor Election: Turnout settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Arizona.