KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Abbott, 3+ pts 54%-8.0ptLeader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
55 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$865.4
Liquidity
$6.9K
Medium liquiditySpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Apr 29, 26, 2:00 PM UTCNov 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Open markets
Politics
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- D-House, R-Senate30%
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POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Texas Governor margin of victory?
- Kalshi prices Abbott, 3+ pts at 54% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Texas Governor margin of victory resolve?
- Texas Governor margin of victory is scheduled to resolve on November 3, 2027.
- How is Texas Governor margin of victory settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Republican Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.