Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJun 11, 25, 1:33 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
As of writing, there are nine sovereign nuclear states: USA, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.
- Will there be a tenth by 31 Dec 2027, 23:59:59 UTC?
- Resolves YES if any sovereign state other than the above nine possess nuclear weapons before the above date.
- Otherwise, resolves NO.
- Nuclear weapons sharing agreements do not count.
- The state must have credible and independent capacity to launch nuclear strikes on other (e.g. neighboring) states to count.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+18.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.8M
- 24h Vol
- $836K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $113.6K
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029-2.0pt69%
- Before Jul 1, 2028-1.0pt67%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt64%
+11 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 82% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027? resolve?
- New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is New sovereign nuclear state by EOY2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As of writing, there are nine sovereign nuclear states: USA, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.