Will California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopoliticsChina9yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.7%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 7, 26, 6:08 AM UTCDec 31, 35, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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There could be many potential reasons, one is that AGI could become extremely dominating militarily in a way that gives the state high (bargaining) powers
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2035, at 11:59 PM PT, California has officially seceded from the United States or is otherwise formally recognized as an independent, sovereign nation-state separate from the United States federal government.
- To resolve to YES, at least one of the following conditions must be met:
- De Facto Sovereignty (similar to Taiwan): California successfully establishes full military and political autonomy, completely voids U.S. federal jurisdiction over its territory, and obtains formal diplomatic recognition as an independent state from the United States or admission as a member state of the United Nations.
- Federal Recognition: The United States federal government officially recognizes California's secession and sovereign independence through an Act of Congress, a ratified constitutional amendment, or a binding Supreme Court ruling.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035? resolve?
- Will California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2035.
- How is Will California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: There could be many potential reasons, one is that AGI could become extremely dominating militarily in a way that gives the state high (bargaining) powers