Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastBefore 2050 70.3%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
81
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleOct 18, 25, 9:15 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 10:13 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If the ICJ rules Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, will this appear on Wikipedia's main page within 30 days?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve when Wikipedia stops identifying Gaza as a genocide for a 168 hour period.
- Then all dates after the current date resolve YES and all dates before resolve NO.
- Specifically, the market will resolve if:
- The English Wikipedia article currently titled "Gaza genocide" is either deleted, renamed to a title that does not include "genocide" (e.g., "Gaza conflict," "Israel-Hamas war allegations," or similar without the term "genocide" directly asserting it), or its lead section (the first paragraph) is fundamentally altered to remove the assertion that the conflict is a genocide.
- This needs to hold for a week.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for By when will Wikipedia stop considering Gaza a genocide??
- Manifold Markets prices Before 2050 at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does By when will Wikipedia stop considering Gaza a genocide? resolve?
- By when will Wikipedia stop considering Gaza a genocide? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2050.
- How is By when will Wikipedia stop considering Gaza a genocide? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria