Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 11:21 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastBefore 2050 65.2%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
81
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleOct 18, 25, 9:15 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 10:13 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, Palestine?
Manifold MarketsIf the ICJ rules Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, will this appear on Wikipedia's main page within 30 days?
Manifold MarketsGaza genocide still labeled as genocide by Wikipedia in 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy when will the Wikipedia page "Gaza genocide" be deleted or retitled?
Manifold MarketsWill an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve when Wikipedia stops identifying Gaza as a genocide for a 168 hour period.
- Then all dates after the current date resolve YES and all dates before resolve NO.
- Specifically, the market will resolve if:
- The English Wikipedia article currently titled "Gaza genocide" is either deleted, renamed to a title that does not include "genocide" (e.g., "Gaza conflict," "Israel-Hamas war allegations," or similar without the term "genocide" directly asserting it), or its lead section (the first paragraph) is fundamentally altered to remove the assertion that the conflict is a genocide.
- This needs to hold for a week.