Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 62.8%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleOct 21, 25, 12:24 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By when will the Wikipedia page "Gaza genocide" be deleted or retitled?
Manifold MarketsBy when will Wikipedia stop considering Gaza a genocide?
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Manifold MarketsWill the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?
Manifold MarketsWill an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on January 1, 2030, the English Wikipedia article currently titled "Gaza genocide" (or any successor article primarily covering the same events) prominently uses the term "genocide" to describe Israel's genocide in Gaza.
- This includes its use in the article's title, its lead section, or a dedicated infobox within the article.
- The resolution will be determined by examining the live version of the article on en.wikipedia.org at 12:00 AM UTC on January 1, 2030.
- If the article is unavailable or significantly altered, an archived version from archive.org as close as possible to the resolution date will be used.
- If no such article exists, or if the term "genocide" is not prominently used to describe Israel's actions in Gaza as per the criteria above, the market will resolve to "No."
