Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
2.0 pts (24h)Middle EastOne-Off1y
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 87.1%+2.0pt
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$594.4
Low liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 13.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jun 29, 26, 8:14 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if he International Criminal Court ("ICC"), the International Court of Justice ("ICJ"), or any ad hoc international tribunal with recognized legal standing, issues a judgment or conviction finding that either the State of Israel or any current or former Israeli official committed genocide or acts of genocide by December 31, 2027 at 11:59PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- For the judgment of an ad hoc tribunal to be relevant for purposes of this market, the tribunal must be established by the United Nations or any body thereof.
- A first-instance conviction or judgment shall qualify for "Yes" resolution even if it remains subject to appeal or has not yet been affirmed on appeal.
- Preliminary or provisional findings that are not judgments on the merits will not qualify for purposes of this market.
- The resolution source will be official statements from the ICC, the ICJ, or a qualifying ad hoc tribunal; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.