Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 50.5%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleFeb 15, 25, 5:32 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, Palestine?
Manifold MarketsBy when will Wikipedia stop considering Gaza a genocide?
Manifold MarketsIf the ICJ rules Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, will this appear on Wikipedia's main page within 30 days?
Manifold MarketsIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
Background The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is currently hearing South Africa's case against Israel regarding alleged violations of the Genocide Convention in Gaza.
- On January 26, 2024, the ICJ issued provisional measures.
- However, this preliminary ruling does not constitute a final determination on whether Israel has breached the Convention.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if the ICJ issues a final judgment finding that Israel has breached any provision of the Genocide Convention in relation to its actions in Gaza.
- It will resolve NO if the ICJ either:
- Issues a final judgment finding that Israel has not breached the Convention
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+18.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.8M
- 24h Vol
- $836K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $113.6K
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029-2.0pt69%
- Before Jul 1, 2028-1.0pt67%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt64%
+11 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will ICJ find Israel in breach of the Genocide Convention??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 51% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will ICJ find Israel in breach of the Genocide Convention? resolve?
- Will ICJ find Israel in breach of the Genocide Convention? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2050.
- How is Will ICJ find Israel in breach of the Genocide Convention? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Background The International Court of Justice (ICJ) is currently hearing South Africa's case against Israel regarding alleged violations of the Genocide Convention in Gaza.