KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
At least 4,800,000 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
At least 5,300,000 46.5%Market line of 12 lines
At least 5,300,000 46.5%Market quality
37 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$200
Open interest
$6.3K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
At least 4,800,000Spread
—
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Oct 5, 26, 9:00 PM UTCOct 27, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · At least 4,800,000
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Benjamin Netanyahu run for the Israeli Knesset next election?
Manifold MarketsAt least two parties not in current government of Israel in government formed after Knesset election?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will win a seat in the 2026 Knesset elections?
PolymarketWill former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennet be a member of the 26th knesset?
Manifold MarketsVote of confidence passes in Knesset by December 31?
PolymarketVote of confidence in Knesset by December 31?
PolymarketRules
If at least 5,300,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Central Elections Committee for the Knesset
- The count is the total of valid and invalid ballots cast in Israel's Knesset election, as reported by the Central Elections Committee. Registered voters and ballots in other contests do not count. Subject to the contract's Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution Upon Designated Media Source Declarations provisions, the vote count refers to the officially certified results from the relevant election authority. Provisional, absentee, early, mail-in, or electronic ballots are included only if reflected in the official certification. The contract resolves based on officially certified results regardless of ongoing appeals. Outside those two contract provisions, preliminary counts, exit polls, projections, or uncertified results do not qualify. If the election is postponed but held within one year of the originally scheduled date, the contract remains valid; if postponed beyond one year or canceled before voting is fully conducted, all contracts resolve to No.
Rules for each outcome
- At least 4,800,000
- If at least 4,800,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 4,900,000
- If at least 4,900,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5,000,000
- If at least 5,000,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5,100,000
- If at least 5,100,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5,200,000
- If at least 5,200,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5,250,000
- If at least 5,250,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5,300,000
- If at least 5,300,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5,400,000
- If at least 5,400,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5,500,000
- If at least 5,500,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5,600,000
- If at least 5,600,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5,700,000
- If at least 5,700,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 5,800,000
- If at least 5,800,000 valid and invalid ballots are cast in the October 27, 2026 Israeli Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes.