U.S. gov/any American placed on trial in international court for violation of international law relating to war in Iran?
GeopoliticsOne-OffHealth & MedicineMiddle EastCrime & Justice1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 64.6%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 27, 26, 4:31 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 5:00 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, on or before December 31, 2027 (11:59 PM UTC), either the United States government or any U.S. citizen is formally placed on trial before a recognized international court for violations of international law related to the military conflict in Iran that escalated in 2026.
- If no such trial begins by this date, the market will resolve to NO.
- Definitions:
- International Court: This is strictly limited to the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the International Criminal Court (ICC), or a United Nations-mandated ad-hoc international criminal tribunal.
- Bilateral arbitral bodies (such as the Iran-United States Claims Tribunal) and domestic national courts do not qualify.