Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 6:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 96.3%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMar 18, 23, 3:41 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 12:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for an American politician by 2030?
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Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Putin stands trial in the International Criminal Court.
- Resolves NO if Putin dies without that happening.
- (Only resolves to YES if Putin stands trial in person.
- The ICC does not conduct trials in absentia.)
- https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/17/americas/icc-karim-khan-putin-war-crimes-intl/index.html