Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65.6%
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89
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Updated 25 minutes ago
Jan 15, 24, 2:14 AM UTCJan 2, 34, 4:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
At the start of 2034 will the consensus by historians or other credible sources will the Israel Hamas conflict be described as genocide.
- Any or action directly leading from this conflict will also count.
- But in general it should involve either Israel or Palestine.
- Since this is a bit vague a lot of conversation will need to be had in the comments.
- For a baseline if under a list of genocides Wikipedia has a genocide involving Israel and Palestine (It would have to start after or during 2023) this would resolve yes.
- If the United Nations votes and considers events involving Israel and Palestine a genocide this would also resolve yes.