Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 62%
Forecasters
87
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJan 15, 24, 2:14 AM UTCJan 2, 34, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the current Israel-Hamas conflict last ten years, as some senior Israeli officials warned during Biden's trip?
Manifold MarketsWill Lebanon be at war with Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas Conflict?
Manifold MarketsGaza genocide still labeled as genocide by Wikipedia in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an international court find Israel or its leaders guilty of Genocide by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill Hamas agree to disarm by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
PolymarketRules
At the start of 2034 will the consensus by historians or other credible sources will the Israel Hamas conflict be described as genocide.
- Any or action directly leading from this conflict will also count.
- But in general it should involve either Israel or Palestine.
- Since this is a bit vague a lot of conversation will need to be had in the comments.
- For a baseline if under a list of genocides Wikipedia has a genocide involving Israel and Palestine (It would have to start after or during 2023) this would resolve yes.
- If the United Nations votes and considers events involving Israel and Palestine a genocide this would also resolve yes.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $26.9M
- 24h Vol
- $363.4K
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-19.5pt49%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+6.1pt59.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8.1M
- 24h Vol
- $178.2K
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034)?
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 62% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034) resolve?
- Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034) is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2034.
- How is Will the Israeli Hamas conflict be described as a genocide in 10 years(2034) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: At the start of 2034 will the consensus by historians or other credible sources will the Israel Hamas conflict be described as genocide.