In 2030, will the government of Syria be better described as being closer to that of the UAE or Afghanistan?
Middle EastOne-OffAITech3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 63.5%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 54 minutes ago
LaggingDec 12, 24, 2:42 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 3:59 PM UTC
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Some interesting information about HTS in Syria including that they are supposedly a technocratic (https://warontherocks.com/2024/12/the-patient-efforts-behind-hayat-tahrir-al-shams-success-in-aleppo/) government and "moderate" Salafist (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-political-jihad-of-syrias-hayat-tahrir-al-sham/id1364539980?i=1000679760519).
- Richard Hanania keeps saying how optimistic he is that this is a new Syria: https://www.richardhanania.com/p/syria-and-uncle-sam-as-the-hegelian
- https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1866567538991304967
- https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/1867212659999027396.
- Resolved by LLM in five years using the prompt:
- In 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham overthrew the government of Bashar al-Assad and observers were uncertain whether the future of Syria would be hardcore Salafist (like the Taliban in Afghanistan) or moderate and technocratic (like the UAE, Qatar, or Saudi Arabia).
