If the ICJ rules Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, will this appear on Wikipedia's main page within 30 days?
Middle EastOne-OffManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleOct 26, 25, 4:58 PM UTCJan 1, 50, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, Palestine?
Manifold MarketsBy when will Wikipedia stop considering Gaza a genocide?
Manifold MarketsWill the International Court of Justice (ICJ) determine that Israel committed genocide in Gaza?
Manifold MarketsLAPTOP listed on ___ within 30 days of TGE?
PolymarketCambria listed on ___ within 30 days of TGE?
PolymarketUmia listed on ___ within 30 days of TGE?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the case "Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v.
- Israel)" rules that Israel is not committing genocide, and then this is featured on Wikipedia's main page (for example, on the "In the News" part) within 30 days of the ruling.
- The official ruling date will be determined by the date of publication on the ICJ's website.
- This market will resolve to "No" if, following such a ruling by the ICJ, there is no such mention of this the "In the news" section of the English Wikipedia main page within 30 days of the ruling.
- This market will resolve to "N/A" if the International Court of Justice does not issue a ruling in the case "Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+18.3pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.8M
- 24h Vol
- $836K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt47.5%
- October 31-1.0pt28.7%
- September 30-2.0pt13.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.4pt55.7%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-3.0pt27.8%
- Naftali Bennett8.3%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.0pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.3pt98%
- Yes-0.3pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $113.6K
KALSHIWhen will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Before Jan 1, 2029-2.0pt69%
- Before Jul 1, 2028-1.0pt67%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-1.0pt64%
+11 more outcomes
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Netanyahu out by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If the ICJ rules Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, will this appear on Wikipedia's main page within 30 days??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If the ICJ rules Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, will this appear on Wikipedia's main page within 30 days? resolve?
- If the ICJ rules Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, will this appear on Wikipedia's main page within 30 days? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2050.
- How is If the ICJ rules Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, will this appear on Wikipedia's main page within 30 days? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria