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Data quality warningNo live quotesStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 12:15 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Trends
Before January 20, 2029Awaiting result
Before 2027Awaiting result
Before July 1, 2026Awaiting result
Before May 1, 2026Awaiting result
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Apple buy any part of Disney by the end of 2028
Manifold MarketsWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?
KalshiWill Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States be in charge of at least part of Greenland by January 20, 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
PolymarketWhat countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Will the US buy at least part of Greenland?
- If, on or before 2029-01-19 23:59:59 UTC, the United States purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark, this market resolves to Yes.
- Otherwise, it resolves to No. A “purchase” requires a binding written agreement transferring sovereignty or title to a defined territory in Greenland to the United States, documented by an official U.S. government publication or statement.
- Outcome verification: U.S. government sources first, then AP, Reuters, or The New York Times if needed.
- Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://images.ctfassets.net/jg6lo9a2ukvr/2RI2XzqFRIYwLa2lhHghAe/38d88ab281c6767fa56309007460d7a6/Greenland_Purchase_Terms_and_Conditions.pdf).
- If, on or before 2026-12-31 23:59:59 UTC, the United States purchases at least part of Greenland from Denmark, this market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? · Before January 21, 2029 20%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 98%
- Also available on Polymarket — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 97%
- Also available on Limitless — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 55%