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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Will any country leave NATO by...?
Will any country leave NATO by...?

Will any country leave NATO by...?

0.3% (24h)One-OffGeopolitics6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
2026
2026 5%
Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality

64 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$387.5

Liquidity

$45.3K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

0.3% / 0.4%

Spread

33.3%

Wide spread
7d Change

-0.3%

Market data

Updated 8 minutes ago

Feb 13, 25, 11:08 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
2025
2025
0%
June 30, 2026
June 30, 2026
0%

Selected outcome

20265%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
  • A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
  • That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.
  • The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Active in these topics

BitcoinBTC$62,572.00-3.00%EthereumETH$1,694.23-3.05%SolanaSOL$68.28-4.92%DogecoinDOGE$0.0823-3.17%XRPXRP$1.13-4.54%BNBBNB$573.59-2.91%

Related News

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty.
  • A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".
  • That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution.
  • The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.