KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 31%+1.0%
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0.1
Liquidity
$50.8
Low liquidityBid / Ask
31.0% / 37.0%
Spread
19.4%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Apr 28, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Selected outcome
Yes31%
Also available on Polymarket
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
6mo
26%
75%
60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$105.5K
24h Vol$55
POLYMARKETRules
If any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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If any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments