KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 14%
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$13.7
Liquidity
$6.4K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
14.0% / 16.0%
Spread
14.3%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 29 minutes ago
Apr 28, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes14%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Futuur
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
5mo
73%
27%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1.4
24h Vol$0
FUTUUR
Also available on Polymarket
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
0.5%5mo
89%
+0.0%11%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$158.3K
24h Vol$36.8
POLYMARKETRules
If any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$14Jul 221d of dataJul 26
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If any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments