KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 76%
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$4.3K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
24.0% / 28.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Apr 28, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Venezuela exit OPEC?
KalshiOPEC dissolves in 2026?
PolymarketWill any country leave NATO by which date?
PolymarketWill a country leave BRICS in 2026?
PolymarketWill any country leave the 1967 protocol of the Geneva convention on refugees by dec 31st 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a country leave NATO this year?
Manifold MarketsRules
If any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostDeutsche WelleFinancial TimesFrance 24 EnglishThe GuardianNBC NewsThe Times of IndiaFox NewsCBS NewsABC NewsThe Wall Street JournalNHK World-JapanCNNThe New York TimesBBC NewsThe Globe and MailAl Jazeera Englishthe Associated PressReutersThe South China Morning PostPoliticoChannel NewsAsiaBloomberg News
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following:
- Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies
- Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify.
- The following do NOT qualify:
- Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
Prediction Source Comparison
3 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 26%. Quotes span about 2 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 26% · 3 venues · 2 pt venue spread
Open markets
CommoditiesKALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Sep 17, 2026?
- Above $96.99+42.0pt99%
- Above $95.99+8.0pt99%
- Above $96.49+33.0pt99%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $503.1K
- 24h Vol
- $433.2K
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $100+42.5pt100%
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
+30 more outcomes
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.4600+15.0pt99%
- Above 4.3800+4.0pt99%
- Above 4.4000+19.0pt99%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.445099%
- Above 4.455099%
- Above 4.410099%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $115.6K
- 24h Vol
- $115.6K
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Oct 1, 2027+7.0pt22%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+5.0pt21%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-5.0pt19%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIOil Price (WTI) on Sep 18, 2026?
- $97.00 to $97.99+3.0pt17%
- $96.00 to $96.99+10.0pt17%
- $98.00 to $98.99+2.0pt15%
+24 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Brent crude oil price on September 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Michigan gas prices tomorrow
- Gold price on September 17, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Diesel prices this week
- How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- Illinois gas prices tomorrow
- Florida gas prices tomorrow
- Crude Oil’s next move: Pump to $120 or Dump to $55?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Diesel prices in Sep 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will another country leave OPEC in 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 76% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? resolve?
- Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If any member state of OPEC announces they are leaving the organization before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Futuur, Limitless, Polymarket.