KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 86%
No 86%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Open interest
$4.3K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
11.0% / 15.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 23 minutes ago
Apr 28, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:The Washington PostDeutsche WelleFinancial TimesFrance 24 EnglishThe GuardianNBC NewsThe Times of IndiaFox NewsCBS NewsABC NewsThe Wall Street JournalNHK World-JapanCNNThe New York TimesBBC NewsThe Globe and MailAl Jazeera Englishthe Associated PressReutersThe South China Morning PostPoliticoChannel NewsAsiaBloomberg News
- An agreement or announcement qualifies if it involves any of the following: Formal signing of treaties Parliamentary approval with binding effect Official ratification Formal commitment by the head of state/government with constitutional authority Official statements by authorized ministers Official press releases Formal declarations during government proceedings Official statements to international bodies Phased implementation announcements and multi-party agreements where the country is a signatory also qualify. The following do NOT qualify: Preliminary discussions Conditional agreements contingent on circumstances Opposition party statements Leaked documents Think-tank recommendations General aspirations without specific commitment Draft legislation without approval Regional actions (unless specified) Retraction of previously announced commitments
Rules for each outcome
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Prediction Source Comparison
4 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 13%. The venue spread is about 14 percentage points.
CoinRithm reference 13% · 4 venues · 14 pt venue spread