PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%-0.2pt
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$243.3
Liquidity
$7.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
3.3% / 3.4%
Spread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
3
7d Change
+0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Apr 28, 26, 6:02 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- - More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- - An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- - OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-8.0pt72%
- September 18-7.5pt68%
- September 11-10.5pt60%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $441.2K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.3pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- No+4.5pt80.2%
- Yes-4.5pt19.8%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $288.5K
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+5.0pt58.2%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-1.0pt28.6%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+0.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Al Nassr vs Abha
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for OPEC dissolves in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 97% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does OPEC dissolves in 2026? resolve?
- OPEC dissolves in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is OPEC dissolves in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.