Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 57%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleDec 1, 23, 4:51 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
PolymarketWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
PolymarketWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
KalshiWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
LimitlessWill any additional country announce that it is leaving OPEC in 2026?
PredictItWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
FutuurRules
Resolves to YES if 9 or more of the 13 current official members of OPEC either leave the organization or stop adhering to production quotas (for >1 year) by Dec. 31, 2028.
- Update 2025-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Update:
- No Production Quotas: If OPEC continues as an organization but no quotas are issued, that situation will be treated as equivalent to members having stopped adhering to production quotas.
- Resolution Impact: This interpretation applies when determining if at least 9 of the 13 OPEC members meet the criteria for dissolving the organization.