KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above $4.60 (98%)
Resolved: Sep 30, 2026, 1:10 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 30, 2026, 10:48 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Above $6.3097%
Above $6.2093%
Above $6.4053%
Above $6.507%
Above $6.455%
Above $6.3599%
Above $7.001%
Above $7.1014%
Above $6.35Lost
Above $6.00Lost
Above $6.20Lost
Above $4.70Lost
Above $4.80Lost
Above $4.90Lost
Above $5.00Lost
Above $5.10Lost
Above $5.20Lost
Above $5.30Lost
Above $5.40Lost
Above $5.60Lost
Above $5.70Lost
Above $5.80Lost
Above $5.90Lost
Above $6.10Lost
Above $4.60Won
Above $5.50Lost
Above $6.30Lost
Above $6.40Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Diesel prices in Oct 2026
KalshiDiesel export ban before midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill the US ban diesel exports before Election Day?
Manifold MarketsUS Average DIESEL Price Is $6.000 or more on Election Day 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS Average DIESEL Price Is $8 or more on any day in 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
PolymarketRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the Diesel Price on September 30, 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:AAA