Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Sep 21, 26, 8:52 PM UTCNov 2, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the reduction in global lithium supply due to the Zimbabwe export ban exceed 10 kt on September 29, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 15 kt on September 29, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the reduction in global lithium supply due to Zimbabwe export ban exceed 5 kt on September 29, 2026?
Manifold MarketsDiesel prices tomorrow
KalshiDiesel prices in Sep 2026
KalshiDiesel prices this week
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the United States federal government enacts a ban or embargo on the export of diesel fuel (distillate fuel oil) from the U.S. at any point before the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The action must be federal, implemented via an executive order, a federal agency action (e.g., from the Department of Energy or the Bureau of Industry and Security), or federal legislation signed into law.
- State-level proposals, actions, or non-binding resolutions do not qualify.
- The policy must legally prohibit or comprehensively restrict the export of U.S. diesel fuel to foreign markets (temporary bans or short-term emergency embargoes qualify, but narrow, non-binding guidelines or routine administrative export licensing adjustments do not).
Open markets
Commodities
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in September 2026?
- ↑ $100+42.5pt100%
- ↑ $90+35.5pt100%
- ↑ $85+5.7pt100%
+33 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7M
- 24h Vol
- $355.9K
KALSHIUS gas prices tomorrow
- Above 4.440099%
- Above 4.455099%
- Above 4.460099%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $119.6K
- 24h Vol
- $119K
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt35%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-2.0pt26%
- Before Feb 1, 202712%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.6M
KALSHINatural gas price on September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $1.09999%
- Above $2.09999%
- Above $1.79999%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $111.3K
- 24h Vol
- $110.9K
KALSHIHow high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- $115.01 or above-2.2pt36%
- $120.01 or above-5.6pt31%
- $125.01 or above-2.7pt27%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIHow high will US gas prices get in 2026?
- Above $4.60+1.0pt67%
- Above $4.80-4.0pt49%
- Above $5.00+3.0pt40%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- US gas prices this week
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- Diesel prices tomorrow
- Texas ERCOT peak electricity demand on Sep 21, 2026
- Colorado gas prices tomorrow
- Texas gas prices tomorrow
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Oil Price (WTI) on Sep 22, 2026?
- Florida gas prices tomorrow
- Georgia gas prices tomorrow
- Michigan gas prices tomorrow
- Ohio gas prices tomorrow
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Diesel export ban before midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Diesel export ban before midterms? resolve?
- Diesel export ban before midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 2, 2026.
- How is Diesel export ban before midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria